I dwell occasionally whether I have free will. But the more I've thought about it over the years, the less I believe I have it. It's dogma we have it, but I've come to reject it. I suppose that makes me a determinist. I know I won't be able to satisfactorily resolve the issue whether we have free will for myself, let alone someone else, and I don't think I have a coherent argument or philosophy. But I'll give it a shot.
For me, the issue lies around physics. I'll posit we're all made of just energy, matter, and space. These move and interact according to the laws of physics, not of their own accord. Whether they obey rules set up by a creator or that's just how they are, well, that's an argument for another day. Some say the odd, strange and random interactions of small particles are impossible to predict so we don't have actually have predictable laws of physics, so these are just "so called" laws. Yet, they are obeying laws, just that some particles move randomly. Randomness is governed by statistics. Particles are predictably unpredictable. In other words, God plays dice.
But lets talk about this thing that would drive free will. Is it some random thing, when you drill down deep? Or do I have to assume something ineffible is controlling my actions? If it is some random thing, it's not really in control. And if it's something else - is it matter, energy, or space? This controlling thing I would think would be what most people would call "the soul." Or you could call it the puppet master.
Maybe this "soul" would not obey the laws of physics.
Or maybe the soul is the laws of physics, and narrowing that down, the soul could just be mathematical rules, as physics is simply mathematics.
Well, this is all very good, but what does it matter? I suppose for some people, if they believed they had no free will, it would send them into a massive depression with bouts of nihilism. After all, if we're just behaving according to the laws of physics (or we are the laws of physics) , what's the point? There may be no point.
But to be, to get by, and to function as a society, we have to believe we have free will. It would be a rapid descent into anarchy and despotism otherwise. Towards anarchy, as people would believe what's the point of it all, right? And to despotism, because things are predestined, and "blessed are the chosen." Those with the biggest guns and most money will most likely be the chosen.
We might have no choice, but perhaps there is something inherent in the laws of physics that lets us believe we have a choice. What is the fundamental choice even a bacterium has? Or thinks it has? Survive or die. That's the programming, coded even into a bacterium. It's the first choice, but is it really a choice? It's no choice. Everything else stems from that.
Enough incoherent ramblings. I'm sure there are enough holes in my arguments that a three-year old can see through them. And it's rough jelling an argument on a bouncy train car.
But it's not my fault, it's just the laws of physics.